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Admira Praha vs Zbuzany — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Admira Praha
Admira Praha
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Zbuzany
Zbuzany
4/16/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 22Stadion Na Pecích

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Admira Praha52%
×Draw24%
Zbuzany24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira Praha
1.76
Zbuzany
1.11

Admira Praha creates 59% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 15 away

creates per match

Admira Praha
1.31
Zbuzany
0.93

allows per match

Admira Praha
1.30
Zbuzany
2.20

finishing

Admira Praha+0.00on par
Zbuzany+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Praha ↓

Zbuzany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Admira Praha or draw
76%
Admira Praha or Zbuzany
76%
Draw or Zbuzany
48%

Winning margin

Admira Praha wins by 2+
29%
Zbuzany wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Admira Praha 1+ goals
83%
Admira Praha 2+ goals
52%
Admira Praha 3+ goals
26%
Zbuzany 1+ goals
67%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
30%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Admira Praha (draw refunded)
69%
Zbuzany (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Praha at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 87 matches

Zbuzany away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Praha attack 1.31 + Zbuzany defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.76

Zbuzany attack 0.93 + Admira Praha defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Admira Praha scores more
52%
level
24%
Zbuzany scores more
24%

Admira Praha at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Admira Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Admira Praha vs Zbuzany

Admira Praha beat Zbuzany 3-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Na Pecích in Praha.