Admira Praha 3–0 Táborsko II: Result & Stats

Admira Praha

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Táborsko II

11/5/2023

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 14Stadion Na Pecích

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Admira Praha48%

×Draw24%

Táborsko II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Admira PrahaExpected goals in this matchTáborsko II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.26

Admira Praha

1.73

Táborsko II

1.26

Admira Praha creates 37% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 46 away

1.31

creates per match

1.22

1.30

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Admira Praha

1.31

Táborsko II

1.22

allows per match

Admira Praha

1.30

Táborsko II

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Admira Praha+0.00on par

Táborsko II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Praha ↓

Táborsko II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Admira Praha or draw

72%

Admira Praha or Táborsko II

76%

Draw or Táborsko II

52%

Winning margin

Admira Praha wins by 2+

26%

Táborsko II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Admira Praha 1+ goals

82%

Admira Praha 2+ goals

52%

Admira Praha 3+ goals

25%

Táborsko II 1+ goals

72%

Táborsko II 2+ goals

36%

Táborsko II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Admira Praha (draw refunded)

63%

Táborsko II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Praha at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 87 matches

Táborsko II away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Praha attack 1.31 + Táborsko II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.73

Táborsko II attack 1.22 + Admira Praha defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Admira Praha scores more

48%

level

24%

Táborsko II scores more

28%

Admira Praha at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Admira Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff