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Admira Praha vs Přeštice — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Admira Praha
Admira Praha
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Přeštice
Přeštice
4/14/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 22Stadion Na Pecích

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Admira Praha46%
×Draw25%
Přeštice29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira Praha
1.62
Přeštice
1.23

Admira Praha creates 32% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 30 away

creates per match

Admira Praha
1.31
Přeštice
1.17

allows per match

Admira Praha
1.30
Přeštice
1.93

finishing

Admira Praha+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Praha ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Admira Praha or draw
71%
Admira Praha or Přeštice
75%
Draw or Přeštice
54%

Winning margin

Admira Praha wins by 2+
24%
Přeštice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Admira Praha 1+ goals
80%
Admira Praha 2+ goals
48%
Admira Praha 3+ goals
22%
Přeštice 1+ goals
71%
Přeštice 2+ goals
35%
Přeštice 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Admira Praha (draw refunded)
62%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Praha at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 87 matches

Přeštice away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Praha attack 1.31 + Přeštice defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.62

Přeštice attack 1.17 + Admira Praha defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Admira Praha scores more
46%
level
25%
Přeštice scores more
29%

Admira Praha at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Admira Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Admira Praha 0–2 Přeštice

Přeštice beat Admira Praha 2-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Na Pecích in Praha.