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Admira Praha vs České Budějovice II — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Admira Praha
Admira Praha
FT
3 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
České Budějovice II
České Budějovice II
9/8/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 5Stadion Na Pecích

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Admira Praha42%
×Draw23%
České Budějovice II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira Praha
1.70
České Budějovice II
1.52

Admira Praha creates 12% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 61 away

creates per match

Admira Praha
1.31
České Budějovice II
1.75

allows per match

Admira Praha
1.30
České Budějovice II
2.08

finishing

Admira Praha+0.00on par
České Budějovice II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Praha ↓

České Budějovice II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Admira Praha or draw
65%
Admira Praha or České Budějovice II
77%
Draw or České Budějovice II
58%

Winning margin

Admira Praha wins by 2+
22%
České Budějovice II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Admira Praha 1+ goals
82%
Admira Praha 2+ goals
51%
Admira Praha 3+ goals
24%
České Budějovice II 1+ goals
78%
České Budějovice II 2+ goals
45%
České Budějovice II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Admira Praha (draw refunded)
55%
České Budějovice II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Praha at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 87 matches

České Budějovice II away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.08 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Praha attack 1.31 + České Budějovice II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.70

České Budějovice II attack 1.75 + Admira Praha defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Admira Praha scores more
42%
level
23%
České Budějovice II scores more
35%

Admira Praha at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Admira Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Admira Praha 3–6 České Budějovice II

České Budějovice II beat Admira Praha 6-3 in 3. liga - CFL A on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Na Pecích in Praha.