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Admira Praha II vs Louny — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Admira Praha II
Admira Praha II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Louny
Louny
8/21/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 3Stadion Na Pecích

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Admira Praha II49%
×Draw25%
Louny26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira Praha II
1.61
Louny
1.11

Admira Praha II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 70 away

creates per match

Admira Praha II
1.18
Louny
1.16

allows per match

Admira Praha II
1.07
Louny
2.04

finishing

Admira Praha II+0.00on par
Louny+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Praha II ↓

Louny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Admira Praha II or draw
74%
Admira Praha II or Louny
75%
Draw or Louny
51%

Winning margin

Admira Praha II wins by 2+
26%
Louny wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Admira Praha II 1+ goals
80%
Admira Praha II 2+ goals
48%
Admira Praha II 3+ goals
22%
Louny 1+ goals
67%
Louny 2+ goals
30%
Louny 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Admira Praha II (draw refunded)
65%
Louny (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Praha II at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

Louny away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.04 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Praha II attack 1.18 + Louny defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.61

Louny attack 1.16 + Admira Praha II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Admira Praha II scores more
49%
level
25%
Louny scores more
26%

Admira Praha II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Admira Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Admira Praha II 3 – 2 Louny

Admira Praha II beat Louny 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie B on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Na Pecích in Praha.