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Admira II vs Team Wiener Linien — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Admira II
Admira II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Team Wiener Linien
Team Wiener Linien
9/20/2019Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 8BSFZ-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Admira II37%
×Draw24%
Team Wiener Linien39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira II
1.56
Team Wiener Linien
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 28 away

creates per match

Admira II
1.51
Team Wiener Linien
1.43

allows per match

Admira II
1.78
Team Wiener Linien
1.61

finishing

Admira II+0.00on par
Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira II ↓

Team Wiener Linien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Admira II or draw
61%
Admira II or Team Wiener Linien
76%
Draw or Team Wiener Linien
63%

Winning margin

Admira II wins by 2+
18%
Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Admira II 1+ goals
79%
Admira II 2+ goals
46%
Admira II 3+ goals
21%
Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals
80%
Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals
47%
Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Admira II (draw refunded)
49%
Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.78 · 41 matches

Team Wiener Linien away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira II attack 1.51 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.43 + Admira II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Admira II scores more
37%
level
24%
Team Wiener Linien scores more
39%

Team Wiener Linien at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Team Wiener Linien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Admira II 1–1 Team Wiener Linien

Admira II and Team Wiener Linien drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on September 20, 2019.

The match was played at BSFZ-Arena in Maria Enzersdorf.