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Administration Police Fc vs Ushuru FC — Super League 2018

Administration Police Fc
Administration Police Fc
FT
0 – 3
Ushuru FC
Ushuru FC
6/16/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Administration Police Fc23%
×Draw27%
Ushuru FC50%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Administration Police Fc
0.86
Ushuru FC
1.40

Ushuru FC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Administration Police Fc
0.93
Ushuru FC
1.27

allows per match

Administration Police Fc
1.53
Ushuru FC
0.80

finishing

Administration Police Fc+0.00on par
Ushuru FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Administration Police Fc ↓

Ushuru FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Administration Police Fc or draw
50%
Administration Police Fc or Ushuru FC
73%
Draw or Ushuru FC
77%

Winning margin

Administration Police Fc wins by 2+
8%
Ushuru FC wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Administration Police Fc 1+ goals
58%
Administration Police Fc 2+ goals
21%
Administration Police Fc 3+ goals
6%
Ushuru FC 1+ goals
75%
Ushuru FC 2+ goals
41%
Ushuru FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Administration Police Fc (draw refunded)
32%
Ushuru FC (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Administration Police Fc at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Ushuru FC away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Administration Police Fc attack 0.93 + Ushuru FC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.86

Ushuru FC attack 1.27 + Administration Police Fc defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Administration Police Fc scores more
23%
level
27%
Ushuru FC scores more
50%

Ushuru FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ushuru FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Administration Police Fc 0–3 Ushuru FC

Ushuru FC beat Administration Police Fc 3-0 in Super League on June 16, 2018.