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Administration Police Fc vs Nairobi Stima — Super League 2018

Administration Police Fc
Administration Police Fc
FT
0 – 2
Nairobi Stima
Nairobi Stima
9/29/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 35

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Administration Police Fc24%
×Draw25%
Nairobi Stima51%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Administration Police Fc
1.05
Nairobi Stima
1.63

Nairobi Stima creates 55% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

creates per match

Administration Police Fc
0.93
Nairobi Stima
1.72

allows per match

Administration Police Fc
1.53
Nairobi Stima
1.17

finishing

Administration Police Fc+0.00on par
Nairobi Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Administration Police Fc ↓

Nairobi Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Administration Police Fc or draw
49%
Administration Police Fc or Nairobi Stima
75%
Draw or Nairobi Stima
76%

Winning margin

Administration Police Fc wins by 2+
9%
Nairobi Stima wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Administration Police Fc 1+ goals
65%
Administration Police Fc 2+ goals
28%
Administration Police Fc 3+ goals
9%
Nairobi Stima 1+ goals
80%
Nairobi Stima 2+ goals
48%
Nairobi Stima 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Administration Police Fc (draw refunded)
32%
Nairobi Stima (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Administration Police Fc at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Nairobi Stima away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Administration Police Fc attack 0.93 + Nairobi Stima defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Nairobi Stima attack 1.72 + Administration Police Fc defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Administration Police Fc scores more
24%
level
25%
Nairobi Stima scores more
51%

Nairobi Stima at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nairobi Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Administration Police Fc 0–2 Nairobi Stima

Nairobi Stima beat Administration Police Fc 2-0 in Super League on September 29, 2018.