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Administration Police Fc vs Nairobi City Stars — Super League 2018

Administration Police Fc
Administration Police Fc
FT
1 – 1
Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
4/21/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Administration Police Fc33%
×Draw28%
Nairobi City Stars39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Administration Police Fc
1.10
Nairobi City Stars
1.22

Nairobi City Stars creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 33 away

creates per match

Administration Police Fc
0.93
Nairobi City Stars
0.91

allows per match

Administration Police Fc
1.53
Nairobi City Stars
1.27

finishing

Administration Police Fc+0.00on par
Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Administration Police Fc ↓

Nairobi City Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Administration Police Fc or draw
61%
Administration Police Fc or Nairobi City Stars
72%
Draw or Nairobi City Stars
67%

Winning margin

Administration Police Fc wins by 2+
13%
Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Administration Police Fc 1+ goals
67%
Administration Police Fc 2+ goals
30%
Administration Police Fc 3+ goals
10%
Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
70%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
34%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Administration Police Fc (draw refunded)
46%
Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Administration Police Fc at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Nairobi City Stars away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Administration Police Fc attack 0.93 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Nairobi City Stars attack 0.91 + Administration Police Fc defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Administration Police Fc scores more
33%
level
28%
Nairobi City Stars scores more
39%

Nairobi City Stars at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nairobi City Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Administration Police Fc 1–1 Nairobi City Stars

Administration Police Fc and Nairobi City Stars drew 1-1 in Super League on April 21, 2018.