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Administration Police Fc vs Kibera Black Stars — Super League 2018

Administration Police Fc
Administration Police Fc
FT
0 – 1
Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
3/3/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Administration Police Fc34%
×Draw28%
Kibera Black Stars38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Administration Police Fc
1.16
Kibera Black Stars
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

creates per match

Administration Police Fc
1.00
Kibera Black Stars
0.96

allows per match

Administration Police Fc
1.53
Kibera Black Stars
1.31

finishing

Administration Police Fc+0.00on par
Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Administration Police Fc ↓

Kibera Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Administration Police Fc or draw
62%
Administration Police Fc or Kibera Black Stars
72%
Draw or Kibera Black Stars
66%

Winning margin

Administration Police Fc wins by 2+
14%
Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Administration Police Fc 1+ goals
69%
Administration Police Fc 2+ goals
32%
Administration Police Fc 3+ goals
11%
Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
71%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
36%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Administration Police Fc (draw refunded)
47%
Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Administration Police Fc at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Administration Police Fc attack 1.00 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.96 + Administration Police Fc defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Administration Police Fc scores more
34%
level
28%
Kibera Black Stars scores more
38%

Kibera Black Stars at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kibera Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Administration Police Fc 0 – 1 Kibera Black Stars

Kibera Black Stars beat Administration Police Fc 1-0 in Super League on March 3, 2018.