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Administration Police Fc vs Kenya Police — Super League 2018

Administration Police Fc
Administration Police Fc
FT
0 – 0
Kenya Police
Kenya Police
9/5/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Administration Police Fc32%
×Draw28%
Kenya Police40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Administration Police Fc
1.06
Kenya Police
1.22

Kenya Police creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Administration Police Fc
1.06
Kenya Police
0.94

allows per match

Administration Police Fc
1.50
Kenya Police
1.06

finishing

Administration Police Fc+0.00on par
Kenya Police+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Administration Police Fc ↓

Kenya Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Administration Police Fc or draw
60%
Administration Police Fc or Kenya Police
72%
Draw or Kenya Police
68%

Winning margin

Administration Police Fc wins by 2+
12%
Kenya Police wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Administration Police Fc 1+ goals
65%
Administration Police Fc 2+ goals
29%
Administration Police Fc 3+ goals
9%
Kenya Police 1+ goals
70%
Kenya Police 2+ goals
34%
Kenya Police 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Administration Police Fc (draw refunded)
44%
Kenya Police (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Administration Police Fc at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Kenya Police away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Administration Police Fc attack 1.06 + Kenya Police defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Kenya Police attack 0.94 + Administration Police Fc defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Administration Police Fc scores more
32%
level
28%
Kenya Police scores more
40%

Kenya Police at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kenya Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Administration Police Fc 0–0 Kenya Police

Administration Police Fc and Kenya Police drew 0-0 in Super League on September 5, 2018.