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Administration Police Fc vs Kangemi All Stars — Super League 2018

Administration Police Fc
Administration Police Fc
FT
0 – 2
Kangemi All Stars
Kangemi All Stars
7/7/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Administration Police Fc38%
×Draw26%
Kangemi All Stars36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Administration Police Fc
1.32
Kangemi All Stars
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

creates per match

Administration Police Fc
0.93
Kangemi All Stars
1.00

allows per match

Administration Police Fc
1.53
Kangemi All Stars
1.72

finishing

Administration Police Fc+0.00on par
Kangemi All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Administration Police Fc ↓

Kangemi All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Administration Police Fc or draw
64%
Administration Police Fc or Kangemi All Stars
74%
Draw or Kangemi All Stars
62%

Winning margin

Administration Police Fc wins by 2+
17%
Kangemi All Stars wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Administration Police Fc 1+ goals
73%
Administration Police Fc 2+ goals
38%
Administration Police Fc 3+ goals
15%
Kangemi All Stars 1+ goals
72%
Kangemi All Stars 2+ goals
36%
Kangemi All Stars 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Administration Police Fc (draw refunded)
52%
Kangemi All Stars (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Administration Police Fc at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Kangemi All Stars away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Administration Police Fc attack 0.93 + Kangemi All Stars defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.32

Kangemi All Stars attack 1.00 + Administration Police Fc defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Administration Police Fc scores more
38%
level
26%
Kangemi All Stars scores more
36%

Administration Police Fc at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Administration Police Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Administration Police Fc 0–2 Kangemi All Stars

Kangemi All Stars beat Administration Police Fc 2-0 in Super League on July 7, 2018.