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Administration Police Fc vs FC Talanta — Super League 2018

Administration Police Fc
Administration Police Fc
FT
1 – 0
FC Talanta
FC Talanta
5/13/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Administration Police Fc29%
×Draw27%
FC Talanta44%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Administration Police Fc
1.05
FC Talanta
1.38

FC Talanta creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

creates per match

Administration Police Fc
0.93
FC Talanta
1.22

allows per match

Administration Police Fc
1.53
FC Talanta
1.17

finishing

Administration Police Fc+0.00on par
FC Talanta+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Administration Police Fc ↓

FC Talanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Administration Police Fc or draw
56%
Administration Police Fc or FC Talanta
73%
Draw or FC Talanta
71%

Winning margin

Administration Police Fc wins by 2+
11%
FC Talanta wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Administration Police Fc 1+ goals
65%
Administration Police Fc 2+ goals
28%
Administration Police Fc 3+ goals
9%
FC Talanta 1+ goals
75%
FC Talanta 2+ goals
40%
FC Talanta 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Administration Police Fc (draw refunded)
39%
FC Talanta (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Administration Police Fc at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

FC Talanta away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Administration Police Fc attack 0.93 + FC Talanta defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

FC Talanta attack 1.22 + Administration Police Fc defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Administration Police Fc scores more
29%
level
27%
FC Talanta scores more
44%

FC Talanta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Talanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Administration Police Fc vs FC Talanta

Administration Police Fc beat FC Talanta 1-0 in Super League on May 13, 2018.