Adjidja 0–0 Panthères: Result & Stats

Adjidja

FT

0 – 0

Panthères

4/3/2022

Championnat National · Championship Round - 8Stade Saint-Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Adjidja42%

×Draw31%

Panthères27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AdjidjaExpected goals in this matchPanthères

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.85

Adjidja

1.13

Panthères

0.85

Adjidja creates 33% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 93 away

1.09

creates per match

0.82

0.88

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Adjidja

1.09

Panthères

0.82

allows per match

Adjidja

0.88

Panthères

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adjidja+0.00on par

Panthères+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adjidja ↓

Panthères →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Adjidja or draw

73%

Adjidja or Panthères

69%

Draw or Panthères

58%

Winning margin

Adjidja wins by 2+

18%

Panthères wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Adjidja 1+ goals

68%

Adjidja 2+ goals

31%

Adjidja 3+ goals

11%

Panthères 1+ goals

57%

Panthères 2+ goals

21%

Panthères 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Adjidja (draw refunded)

61%

Panthères (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adjidja at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.88 · 76 matches

Panthères away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adjidja attack 1.09 + Panthères defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Panthères attack 0.82 + Adjidja defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Adjidja scores more

42%

level

31%

Panthères scores more

27%

Adjidja at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Adjidja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff