Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Adjidja vs Espoir Savalou — Championnat National 2019

Adjidja
Adjidja
FT
1 – 1
Espoir Savalou
Espoir Savalou
3/24/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 6Stade Saint-Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Adjidja39%
×Draw31%
Espoir Savalou30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adjidja
1.06
Espoir Savalou
0.89

Adjidja creates 19% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 101 away

creates per match

Adjidja
1.09
Espoir Savalou
0.89

allows per match

Adjidja
0.88
Espoir Savalou
1.03

finishing

Adjidja+0.00on par
Espoir Savalou+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adjidja ↓

Espoir Savalou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Adjidja or draw
70%
Adjidja or Espoir Savalou
69%
Draw or Espoir Savalou
61%

Winning margin

Adjidja wins by 2+
15%
Espoir Savalou wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Adjidja 1+ goals
65%
Adjidja 2+ goals
29%
Adjidja 3+ goals
9%
Espoir Savalou 1+ goals
59%
Espoir Savalou 2+ goals
22%
Espoir Savalou 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Adjidja (draw refunded)
57%
Espoir Savalou (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adjidja at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.88 · 76 matches

Espoir Savalou away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adjidja attack 1.09 + Espoir Savalou defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Espoir Savalou attack 0.89 + Adjidja defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Adjidja scores more
39%
level
31%
Espoir Savalou scores more
30%

Adjidja at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Adjidja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adjidja vs Espoir Savalou

Adjidja and Espoir Savalou drew 1-1 in Championnat National on March 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Louis in Seme-Kpodji.