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ADESG vs Náuas — League #520 2026

ADESG
ADESG
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Náuas
Náuas
4/21/2022League #520League #520 · 2nd Phase - 2Arena Acreana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ADESG57%
×Draw22%
Náuas21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADESG
1.89
Náuas
1.06

ADESG creates 78% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

ADESG
1.33
Náuas
0.78

allows per match

ADESG
1.33
Náuas
2.44

finishing

ADESG+0.00on par
Náuas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADESG ↓

Náuas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

ADESG or draw
79%
ADESG or Náuas
78%
Draw or Náuas
43%

Winning margin

ADESG wins by 2+
33%
Náuas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

ADESG 1+ goals
85%
ADESG 2+ goals
56%
ADESG 3+ goals
29%
Náuas 1+ goals
65%
Náuas 2+ goals
29%
Náuas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

ADESG (draw refunded)
73%
Náuas (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADESG at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Náuas away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADESG attack 1.33 + Náuas defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.89

Náuas attack 0.78 + ADESG defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

ADESG scores more
57%
level
22%
Náuas scores more
21%

ADESG at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "ADESG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ADESG 4 – 1 Náuas

ADESG beat Náuas 4-1 in League #520 on April 21, 2022.

The match was played at Arena Acreana in Rio Branco, Acre.