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Adelaide University vs Port Adelaide Pirates — South Australia State League 1 2021

Adelaide University
Adelaide University
FT
3 – 4
Port Adelaide Pirates
Port Adelaide Pirates
6/4/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 13Apex Football Centre Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Adelaide University37%
×Draw21%
Port Adelaide Pirates42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide University
1.84
Port Adelaide Pirates
1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

Adelaide University
1.18
Port Adelaide Pirates
1.32

allows per match

Adelaide University
2.64
Port Adelaide Pirates
2.50

finishing

Adelaide University+0.00on par
Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide University ↓

Port Adelaide Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Adelaide University or draw
58%
Adelaide University or Port Adelaide Pirates
79%
Draw or Port Adelaide Pirates
63%

Winning margin

Adelaide University wins by 2+
19%
Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Adelaide University 1+ goals
84%
Adelaide University 2+ goals
55%
Adelaide University 3+ goals
28%
Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals
86%
Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals
59%
Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Adelaide University (draw refunded)
47%
Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide University at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Port Adelaide Pirates away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide University attack 1.18 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.84

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + Adelaide University defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Adelaide University scores more
37%
level
21%
Port Adelaide Pirates scores more
42%

Port Adelaide Pirates at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Port Adelaide Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide University vs Port Adelaide Pirates

Port Adelaide Pirates beat Adelaide University 4-3 in South Australia State League 1 on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Apex Football Centre Pitch 1 in Adelaide.