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Adelaide University vs Adelaide Victory — South Australia State League 1 2021

Adelaide University
Adelaide University
FT
2 – 2
Adelaide Victory
Adelaide Victory
6/15/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 8Apex Football Centre Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Adelaide University30%
×Draw22%
Adelaide Victory48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide University
1.48
Adelaide Victory
1.94

Adelaide Victory creates 31% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 52 away

creates per match

Adelaide University
1.18
Adelaide Victory
1.23

allows per match

Adelaide University
2.64
Adelaide Victory
1.77

finishing

Adelaide University+0.00on par
Adelaide Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide University ↓

Adelaide Victory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Adelaide University or draw
52%
Adelaide University or Adelaide Victory
78%
Draw or Adelaide Victory
70%

Winning margin

Adelaide University wins by 2+
13%
Adelaide Victory wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Adelaide University 1+ goals
77%
Adelaide University 2+ goals
43%
Adelaide University 3+ goals
19%
Adelaide Victory 1+ goals
86%
Adelaide Victory 2+ goals
58%
Adelaide Victory 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Adelaide University (draw refunded)
38%
Adelaide Victory (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide University at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Adelaide Victory away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide University attack 1.18 + Adelaide Victory defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.48

Adelaide Victory attack 1.23 + Adelaide University defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Adelaide University scores more
30%
level
22%
Adelaide Victory scores more
48%

Adelaide Victory at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Adelaide Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide University vs Adelaide Victory

Adelaide University and Adelaide Victory drew 2-2 in South Australia State League 1 on June 15, 2022.

The match was played at Apex Football Centre Pitch 1 in Adelaide.