Adelaide United 1–1 Wellington Phoenix

Adelaide United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wellington Phoenix

3/6/2026

A-League · Round 20Coopers Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Adelaide United46%

×Draw23%

Wellington Phoenix31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adelaide UnitedExpected goals in this matchWellington Phoenix

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.39

Adelaide United

1.75

Wellington Phoenix

1.39

Adelaide United creates 26% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 109 away

1.77

creates per match

1.29

1.48

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Adelaide United

1.77

Wellington Phoenix

1.29

allows per match

Adelaide United

1.48

Wellington Phoenix

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adelaide United+0.00on par

Wellington Phoenix+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide United ↓

Wellington Phoenix →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Adelaide United or draw

69%

Adelaide United or Wellington Phoenix

77%

Draw or Wellington Phoenix

54%

Winning margin

Adelaide United wins by 2+

25%

Wellington Phoenix wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Adelaide United 1+ goals

83%

Adelaide United 2+ goals

52%

Adelaide United 3+ goals

25%

Wellington Phoenix 1+ goals

75%

Wellington Phoenix 2+ goals

40%

Wellington Phoenix 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Adelaide United (draw refunded)

60%

Wellington Phoenix (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide United at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.48 · 111 matches

Wellington Phoenix away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.73 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide United attack 1.77 + Wellington Phoenix defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.75

Wellington Phoenix attack 1.29 + Adelaide United defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Adelaide United scores more

46%

level

23%

Wellington Phoenix scores more

31%

Adelaide United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Adelaide United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff