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Adelaide United vs Macarthur — A-League 2018

Adelaide United
Adelaide United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Macarthur
Macarthur
1/30/2026A-LeagueA-League · Round 15Coopers Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Adelaide United46%
×Draw23%
Macarthur31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide United
1.78
Macarthur
1.43

Adelaide United creates 24% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 81 away

creates per match

Adelaide United
1.77
Macarthur
1.38

allows per match

Adelaide United
1.48
Macarthur
1.79

finishing

Adelaide United+0.00on par
Macarthur+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide United ↓

Macarthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Adelaide United or draw
69%
Adelaide United or Macarthur
77%
Draw or Macarthur
54%

Winning margin

Adelaide United wins by 2+
25%
Macarthur wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Adelaide United 1+ goals
83%
Adelaide United 2+ goals
53%
Adelaide United 3+ goals
26%
Macarthur 1+ goals
76%
Macarthur 2+ goals
42%
Macarthur 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Adelaide United (draw refunded)
60%
Macarthur (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide United at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.48 · 111 matches

Macarthur away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.79 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide United attack 1.77 + Macarthur defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.78

Macarthur attack 1.38 + Adelaide United defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Adelaide United scores more
46%
level
23%
Macarthur scores more
31%

Adelaide United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Adelaide United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide United vs Macarthur

Adelaide United and Macarthur drew 1-1 in A-League on January 30, 2026.

The match was played at Coopers Stadium in Adelaide.