Adelaide United 0–1 Brisbane Roar: Result & Stats

Adelaide United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brisbane Roar

12/7/2025

A-League · Round 7Coopers Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Adelaide United48%

×Draw23%

Brisbane Roar29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adelaide UnitedExpected goals in this matchBrisbane Roar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.31

Adelaide United

1.75

Brisbane Roar

1.31

Adelaide United creates 34% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 105 away

1.77

creates per match

1.15

1.48

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Adelaide United

1.77

Brisbane Roar

1.15

allows per match

Adelaide United

1.48

Brisbane Roar

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adelaide United+0.00on par

Brisbane Roar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide United ↓

Brisbane Roar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Adelaide United or draw

71%

Adelaide United or Brisbane Roar

77%

Draw or Brisbane Roar

52%

Winning margin

Adelaide United wins by 2+

26%

Brisbane Roar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Adelaide United 1+ goals

83%

Adelaide United 2+ goals

52%

Adelaide United 3+ goals

25%

Brisbane Roar 1+ goals

73%

Brisbane Roar 2+ goals

38%

Brisbane Roar 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Adelaide United (draw refunded)

62%

Brisbane Roar (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide United at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.48 · 111 matches

Brisbane Roar away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide United attack 1.77 + Brisbane Roar defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.75

Brisbane Roar attack 1.15 + Adelaide United defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Adelaide United scores more

48%

level

23%

Brisbane Roar scores more

29%

Adelaide United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Adelaide United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff