Adelaide United II 4–2 Campbelltown City

Adelaide United II

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Campbelltown City

7/26/2025

South Australia NPL · Round 19ServiceFM Stadium Artificial Pitch 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Adelaide United II35%

×Draw22%

Campbelltown City43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adelaide United IIExpected goals in this matchCampbelltown City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.87

Adelaide United II

1.66

Campbelltown City

1.87

Campbelltown City creates 13% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 91 away

1.95

creates per match

1.95

1.79

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Adelaide United II

1.95

Campbelltown City

1.95

allows per match

Adelaide United II

1.79

Campbelltown City

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adelaide United II+0.00on par

Campbelltown City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide United II ↓

Campbelltown City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Adelaide United II or draw

57%

Adelaide United II or Campbelltown City

78%

Draw or Campbelltown City

65%

Winning margin

Adelaide United II wins by 2+

17%

Campbelltown City wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Adelaide United II 1+ goals

81%

Adelaide United II 2+ goals

49%

Adelaide United II 3+ goals

23%

Campbelltown City 1+ goals

85%

Campbelltown City 2+ goals

56%

Campbelltown City 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Adelaide United II (draw refunded)

45%

Campbelltown City (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide United II at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.79 · 85 matches

Campbelltown City away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.37 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide United II attack 1.95 + Campbelltown City defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.66

Campbelltown City attack 1.95 + Adelaide United II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Adelaide United II scores more

35%

level

22%

Campbelltown City scores more

43%

Campbelltown City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Campbelltown City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff