Adelaide Raiders 0–2 MetroStars: Result & Stats

Adelaide Raiders

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

MetroStars

6/14/2025

South Australia NPL · Round 14Croatian Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Adelaide Raiders24%

×Draw22%

MetroStars54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adelaide RaidersExpected goals in this matchMetroStars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.94

Adelaide Raiders

1.23

MetroStars

1.94

MetroStars creates 58% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 89 away

1.38

creates per match

2.25

1.63

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Adelaide Raiders

1.38

MetroStars

2.25

allows per match

Adelaide Raiders

1.63

MetroStars

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adelaide Raiders+0.00on par

MetroStars+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Raiders ↓

MetroStars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Adelaide Raiders or draw

46%

Adelaide Raiders or MetroStars

78%

Draw or MetroStars

76%

Winning margin

Adelaide Raiders wins by 2+

10%

MetroStars wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Adelaide Raiders 1+ goals

71%

Adelaide Raiders 2+ goals

35%

Adelaide Raiders 3+ goals

13%

MetroStars 1+ goals

86%

MetroStars 2+ goals

58%

MetroStars 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Raiders (draw refunded)

31%

MetroStars (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Raiders at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

MetroStars away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.08 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Raiders attack 1.38 + MetroStars defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

MetroStars attack 2.25 + Adelaide Raiders defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Adelaide Raiders scores more

24%

level

22%

MetroStars scores more

54%

MetroStars at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "MetroStars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff