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Adelaide Raiders vs Adelaide University — South Australia State League 1 2021

Adelaide Raiders
Adelaide Raiders
FT
3 – 0
Adelaide University
Adelaide University
8/6/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 21Croatian Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Adelaide Raiders65%
×Draw19%
Adelaide University16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Raiders
2.22
Adelaide University
0.99

Adelaide Raiders creates 124% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 11 away

creates per match

Adelaide Raiders
2.53
Adelaide University
0.73

allows per match

Adelaide Raiders
1.25
Adelaide University
1.91

finishing

Adelaide Raiders+0.00on par
Adelaide University+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Raiders ↓

Adelaide University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Adelaide Raiders or draw
84%
Adelaide Raiders or Adelaide University
81%
Draw or Adelaide University
35%

Winning margin

Adelaide Raiders wins by 2+
42%
Adelaide University wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Adelaide Raiders 1+ goals
89%
Adelaide Raiders 2+ goals
65%
Adelaide Raiders 3+ goals
38%
Adelaide University 1+ goals
63%
Adelaide University 2+ goals
26%
Adelaide University 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Raiders (draw refunded)
81%
Adelaide University (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Raiders at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

Adelaide University away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Raiders attack 2.53 + Adelaide University defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.22

Adelaide University attack 0.73 + Adelaide Raiders defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Adelaide Raiders scores more
65%
level
19%
Adelaide University scores more
16%

Adelaide Raiders at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Adelaide Raiders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide Raiders vs Adelaide University

Adelaide Raiders beat Adelaide University 3-0 in South Australia State League 1 on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Croatian Sports Centre in Adelaide.