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Adelaide Raiders vs Adelaide Olympic — South Australia NPL 2026

Adelaide Raiders
Adelaide Raiders
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Adelaide Olympic
Adelaide Olympic
N. Oan 45+5'
3/8/2024South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 3Croatian Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Adelaide Raiders41%
×Draw25%
Adelaide Olympic34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Raiders
1.55
Adelaide Olympic
1.38

Adelaide Raiders creates 12% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 62 away

creates per match

Adelaide Raiders
1.38
Adelaide Olympic
1.13

allows per match

Adelaide Raiders
1.63
Adelaide Olympic
1.73

finishing

Adelaide Raiders+0.00on par
Adelaide Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Raiders ↓

Adelaide Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Adelaide Raiders or draw
66%
Adelaide Raiders or Adelaide Olympic
75%
Draw or Adelaide Olympic
59%

Winning margin

Adelaide Raiders wins by 2+
21%
Adelaide Olympic wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Adelaide Raiders 1+ goals
79%
Adelaide Raiders 2+ goals
46%
Adelaide Raiders 3+ goals
20%
Adelaide Olympic 1+ goals
75%
Adelaide Olympic 2+ goals
40%
Adelaide Olympic 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Raiders (draw refunded)
55%
Adelaide Olympic (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Raiders at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

Adelaide Olympic away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Raiders attack 1.38 + Adelaide Olympic defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.55

Adelaide Olympic attack 1.13 + Adelaide Raiders defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Adelaide Raiders scores more
41%
level
25%
Adelaide Olympic scores more
34%

Adelaide Raiders at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Adelaide Raiders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+5'
N. Oan
75'
J. King-Byrne
75'
J. King-Byrne

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia NPL: Adelaide Raiders 0–1 Adelaide Olympic

Adelaide Olympic beat Adelaide Raiders 1-0 in South Australia NPL on March 8, 2024.

Goals: N. Oan (45+5').

The match was played at Croatian Sports Centre in Adelaide.