Adelaide Raiders 2–0 Adelaide Hills Hawks

Adelaide Raiders

FT

2 – 0

Adelaide Hills Hawks

3/4/2022

South Australia State League 1 · Round 3Croatian Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Adelaide Raiders65%

×Draw19%

Adelaide Hills Hawks17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adelaide RaidersExpected goals in this matchAdelaide Hills Hawks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.13

Adelaide Raiders

2.38

Adelaide Hills Hawks

1.13

Adelaide Raiders creates 111% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 22 away

2.53

creates per match

1.00

1.25

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Adelaide Raiders

2.53

Adelaide Hills Hawks

1.00

allows per match

Adelaide Raiders

1.25

Adelaide Hills Hawks

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adelaide Raiders+0.00on par

Adelaide Hills Hawks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Raiders ↓

Adelaide Hills Hawks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Adelaide Raiders or draw

83%

Adelaide Raiders or Adelaide Hills Hawks

81%

Draw or Adelaide Hills Hawks

35%

Winning margin

Adelaide Raiders wins by 2+

42%

Adelaide Hills Hawks wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Adelaide Raiders 1+ goals

91%

Adelaide Raiders 2+ goals

68%

Adelaide Raiders 3+ goals

42%

Adelaide Hills Hawks 1+ goals

68%

Adelaide Hills Hawks 2+ goals

31%

Adelaide Hills Hawks 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Raiders (draw refunded)

79%

Adelaide Hills Hawks (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Raiders at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

Adelaide Hills Hawks away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Raiders attack 2.53 + Adelaide Hills Hawks defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.38

Adelaide Hills Hawks attack 1.00 + Adelaide Raiders defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Adelaide Raiders scores more

65%

level

19%

Adelaide Hills Hawks scores more

17%

Adelaide Raiders at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Adelaide Raiders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff