Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Adelaide Olympic vs West Adelaide — South Australia NPL 2026

Adelaide Olympic
Adelaide Olympic
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
West Adelaide
West Adelaide
5/20/2023South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 13Apex Football Centre Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Adelaide Olympic51%
×Draw22%
West Adelaide27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Olympic
2.03
West Adelaide
1.44

Adelaide Olympic creates 41% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 29 away

creates per match

Adelaide Olympic
1.89
West Adelaide
1.00

allows per match

Adelaide Olympic
1.87
West Adelaide
2.17

finishing

Adelaide Olympic+0.00on par
West Adelaide+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Olympic ↓

West Adelaide →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Adelaide Olympic or draw
73%
Adelaide Olympic or West Adelaide
78%
Draw or West Adelaide
49%

Winning margin

Adelaide Olympic wins by 2+
30%
West Adelaide wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Adelaide Olympic 1+ goals
87%
Adelaide Olympic 2+ goals
60%
Adelaide Olympic 3+ goals
33%
West Adelaide 1+ goals
76%
West Adelaide 2+ goals
42%
West Adelaide 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Olympic (draw refunded)
65%
West Adelaide (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Olympic at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

West Adelaide away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Olympic attack 1.89 + West Adelaide defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.03

West Adelaide attack 1.00 + Adelaide Olympic defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Adelaide Olympic scores more
51%
level
22%
West Adelaide scores more
27%

Adelaide Olympic at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Adelaide Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide Olympic vs West Adelaide

Adelaide Olympic beat West Adelaide 4-0 in South Australia NPL on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Apex Football Centre Pitch 1 in Adelaide.