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Adelaide Olympic vs Vipers — South Australia State League 1 2026

Adelaide Olympic
Adelaide Olympic
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vipers
Vipers
8/16/2025South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 22Apex Football Centre Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Adelaide Olympic62%
×Draw20%
Vipers17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Olympic
2.11
Vipers
1.02

Adelaide Olympic creates 107% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 33 away

creates per match

Adelaide Olympic
1.70
Vipers
1.24

allows per match

Adelaide Olympic
0.80
Vipers
2.52

finishing

Adelaide Olympic+0.00on par
Vipers+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Olympic ↓

Vipers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Adelaide Olympic or draw
83%
Adelaide Olympic or Vipers
80%
Draw or Vipers
38%

Winning margin

Adelaide Olympic wins by 2+
39%
Vipers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Adelaide Olympic 1+ goals
88%
Adelaide Olympic 2+ goals
62%
Adelaide Olympic 3+ goals
35%
Vipers 1+ goals
64%
Vipers 2+ goals
27%
Vipers 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Olympic (draw refunded)
78%
Vipers (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Olympic at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Vipers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Olympic attack 1.70 + Vipers defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.11

Vipers attack 1.24 + Adelaide Olympic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Adelaide Olympic scores more
62%
level
20%
Vipers scores more
17%

Adelaide Olympic at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Adelaide Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide Olympic vs Vipers

Adelaide Olympic beat Vipers 4-1 in South Australia State League 1 on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Apex Football Centre Pitch 1 in Adelaide.