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Adelaide Olympic vs Pontian Eagles — South Australia State League 1 2021

Adelaide Olympic
Adelaide Olympic
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Pontian Eagles
Pontian Eagles
7/5/2025South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 17Apex Football Centre Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Adelaide Olympic82%
×Draw13%
Pontian Eagles6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Olympic
2.71
Pontian Eagles
0.58

Adelaide Olympic creates 367% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

creates per match

Adelaide Olympic
1.70
Pontian Eagles
0.36

allows per match

Adelaide Olympic
0.80
Pontian Eagles
3.73

finishing

Adelaide Olympic+0.00on par
Pontian Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Olympic ↓

Pontian Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Adelaide Olympic or draw
94%
Adelaide Olympic or Pontian Eagles
87%
Draw or Pontian Eagles
18%

Winning margin

Adelaide Olympic wins by 2+
61%
Pontian Eagles wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Adelaide Olympic 1+ goals
93%
Adelaide Olympic 2+ goals
75%
Adelaide Olympic 3+ goals
50%
Pontian Eagles 1+ goals
44%
Pontian Eagles 2+ goals
12%
Pontian Eagles 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Olympic (draw refunded)
93%
Pontian Eagles (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Olympic at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Pontian Eagles away — creates 0.36, concedes 3.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Olympic attack 1.70 + Pontian Eagles defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.71

Pontian Eagles attack 0.36 + Adelaide Olympic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Adelaide Olympic scores more
82%
level
13%
Pontian Eagles scores more
6%

Adelaide Olympic at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Adelaide Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Adelaide Olympic 2–1 Pontian Eagles

Adelaide Olympic beat Pontian Eagles 2-1 in South Australia State League 1 on July 5, 2025.

The match was played at Apex Football Centre Pitch 1 in Adelaide.