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Adelaide Hills Hawks vs West Adelaide — South Australia State League 1 2021

Adelaide Hills Hawks
Adelaide Hills Hawks
FT
3 – 1
West Adelaide
West Adelaide
6/25/2021South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 10Hawks Nest

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Adelaide Hills Hawks28%
×Draw24%
West Adelaide48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.23
West Adelaide
1.70

West Adelaide creates 38% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 47 away

creates per match

Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.18
West Adelaide
1.53

allows per match

Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.86
West Adelaide
1.28

finishing

Adelaide Hills Hawks+0.00on par
West Adelaide+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Hills Hawks ↓

West Adelaide →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Adelaide Hills Hawks or draw
52%
Adelaide Hills Hawks or West Adelaide
76%
Draw or West Adelaide
72%

Winning margin

Adelaide Hills Hawks wins by 2+
11%
West Adelaide wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Adelaide Hills Hawks 1+ goals
71%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 2+ goals
35%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 3+ goals
13%
West Adelaide 1+ goals
82%
West Adelaide 2+ goals
51%
West Adelaide 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Hills Hawks (draw refunded)
36%
West Adelaide (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Hills Hawks at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

West Adelaide away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Hills Hawks attack 1.18 + West Adelaide defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

West Adelaide attack 1.53 + Adelaide Hills Hawks defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Adelaide Hills Hawks scores more
28%
level
24%
West Adelaide scores more
48%

West Adelaide at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "West Adelaide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide Hills Hawks vs West Adelaide

Adelaide Hills Hawks beat West Adelaide 3-1 in South Australia State League 1 on June 25, 2021.

The match was played at Hawks Nest in Woodside.