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Adelaide Hills Hawks vs Modbury Jets — South Australia State League 1 2021

Adelaide Hills Hawks
Adelaide Hills Hawks
FT
1 – 6
Modbury Jets
Modbury Jets
4/9/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 7Hawks Nest

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Adelaide Hills Hawks23%
×Draw22%
Modbury Jets56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.19
Modbury Jets
1.98

Modbury Jets creates 66% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 32 away

creates per match

Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.18
Modbury Jets
2.09

allows per match

Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.86
Modbury Jets
1.19

finishing

Adelaide Hills Hawks+0.00on par
Modbury Jets+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Hills Hawks ↓

Modbury Jets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Adelaide Hills Hawks or draw
44%
Adelaide Hills Hawks or Modbury Jets
78%
Draw or Modbury Jets
77%

Winning margin

Adelaide Hills Hawks wins by 2+
9%
Modbury Jets wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Adelaide Hills Hawks 1+ goals
70%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 2+ goals
33%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 3+ goals
12%
Modbury Jets 1+ goals
86%
Modbury Jets 2+ goals
59%
Modbury Jets 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Hills Hawks (draw refunded)
29%
Modbury Jets (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Hills Hawks at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

Modbury Jets away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Hills Hawks attack 1.18 + Modbury Jets defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Modbury Jets attack 2.09 + Adelaide Hills Hawks defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Adelaide Hills Hawks scores more
23%
level
22%
Modbury Jets scores more
56%

Modbury Jets at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Modbury Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Adelaide Hills Hawks 1–6 Modbury Jets

Modbury Jets beat Adelaide Hills Hawks 6-1 in South Australia State League 1 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Hawks Nest in Woodside.