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Adelaide Hills Hawks vs FK Beograd — South Australia State League 1 2021

Adelaide Hills Hawks
Adelaide Hills Hawks
FT
3 – 2
FK Beograd
FK Beograd
8/24/2021South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 13Hawks Nest

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Adelaide Hills Hawks26%
×Draw23%
FK Beograd50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.25
FK Beograd
1.81

FK Beograd creates 45% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 12 away

creates per match

Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.18
FK Beograd
1.75

allows per match

Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.86
FK Beograd
1.33

finishing

Adelaide Hills Hawks+0.00on par
FK Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Hills Hawks ↓

FK Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Adelaide Hills Hawks or draw
50%
Adelaide Hills Hawks or FK Beograd
77%
Draw or FK Beograd
74%

Winning margin

Adelaide Hills Hawks wins by 2+
11%
FK Beograd wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Adelaide Hills Hawks 1+ goals
71%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 2+ goals
36%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 3+ goals
13%
FK Beograd 1+ goals
84%
FK Beograd 2+ goals
54%
FK Beograd 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Hills Hawks (draw refunded)
34%
FK Beograd (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Hills Hawks at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

FK Beograd away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Hills Hawks attack 1.18 + FK Beograd defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

FK Beograd attack 1.75 + Adelaide Hills Hawks defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Adelaide Hills Hawks scores more
26%
level
23%
FK Beograd scores more
50%

FK Beograd at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FK Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide Hills Hawks vs FK Beograd

Adelaide Hills Hawks beat FK Beograd 3-2 in South Australia State League 1 on August 24, 2021.

The match was played at Hawks Nest in Woodside.