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Adelaide Comets vs Adelaide Olympic — South Australia NPL 2026

Adelaide Comets
Adelaide Comets
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Adelaide Olympic
Adelaide Olympic
6/17/2023South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 17ServiceFM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Adelaide Comets52%
×Draw24%
Adelaide Olympic25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Comets
1.75
Adelaide Olympic
1.13

Adelaide Comets creates 55% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 62 away

creates per match

Adelaide Comets
1.76
Adelaide Olympic
1.13

allows per match

Adelaide Comets
1.14
Adelaide Olympic
1.73

finishing

Adelaide Comets+0.00on par
Adelaide Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Comets ↓

Adelaide Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Adelaide Comets or draw
75%
Adelaide Comets or Adelaide Olympic
76%
Draw or Adelaide Olympic
48%

Winning margin

Adelaide Comets wins by 2+
28%
Adelaide Olympic wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Adelaide Comets 1+ goals
83%
Adelaide Comets 2+ goals
52%
Adelaide Comets 3+ goals
25%
Adelaide Olympic 1+ goals
68%
Adelaide Olympic 2+ goals
31%
Adelaide Olympic 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Comets (draw refunded)
68%
Adelaide Olympic (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Comets at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.14 · 88 matches

Adelaide Olympic away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Comets attack 1.76 + Adelaide Olympic defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.75

Adelaide Olympic attack 1.13 + Adelaide Comets defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Adelaide Comets scores more
52%
level
24%
Adelaide Olympic scores more
25%

Adelaide Comets at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Adelaide Comets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia NPL: Adelaide Comets 0–0 Adelaide Olympic

Adelaide Comets and Adelaide Olympic drew 0-0 in South Australia NPL on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at ServiceFM Stadium in Adelaide.