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Adelaide Cobras vs Adelaide Hills Hawks — South Australia State League 1 2021

Adelaide Cobras
Adelaide Cobras
FT
3 – 1
Adelaide Hills Hawks
Adelaide Hills Hawks
8/7/2021South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 16Pro Paint & Panel Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Adelaide Cobras50%
×Draw23%
Adelaide Hills Hawks27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Cobras
1.82
Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.29

Adelaide Cobras creates 41% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 22 away

creates per match

Adelaide Cobras
1.41
Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.00

allows per match

Adelaide Cobras
1.57
Adelaide Hills Hawks
2.23

finishing

Adelaide Cobras+0.00on par
Adelaide Hills Hawks+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Cobras ↓

Adelaide Hills Hawks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Adelaide Cobras or draw
73%
Adelaide Cobras or Adelaide Hills Hawks
77%
Draw or Adelaide Hills Hawks
50%

Winning margin

Adelaide Cobras wins by 2+
27%
Adelaide Hills Hawks wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Adelaide Cobras 1+ goals
84%
Adelaide Cobras 2+ goals
54%
Adelaide Cobras 3+ goals
27%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 1+ goals
72%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 2+ goals
37%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Cobras (draw refunded)
65%
Adelaide Hills Hawks (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Cobras at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.57 · 54 matches

Adelaide Hills Hawks away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Cobras attack 1.41 + Adelaide Hills Hawks defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.82

Adelaide Hills Hawks attack 1.00 + Adelaide Cobras defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Adelaide Cobras scores more
50%
level
23%
Adelaide Hills Hawks scores more
27%

Adelaide Cobras at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Adelaide Cobras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide Cobras vs Adelaide Hills Hawks

Adelaide Cobras beat Adelaide Hills Hawks 3-1 in South Australia State League 1 on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Pro Paint & Panel Oval in Plympton.