Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Adelaide City vs South Adelaide Panthers — South Australia NPL 2026

Adelaide City
Adelaide City
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
South Adelaide Panthers
South Adelaide Panthers
2/24/2024South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 1Adelaide City Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Adelaide City57%
×Draw20%
South Adelaide Panthers23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide City
2.22
South Adelaide Panthers
1.34

Adelaide City creates 66% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 52 away

creates per match

Adelaide City
1.98
South Adelaide Panthers
1.60

allows per match

Adelaide City
1.08
South Adelaide Panthers
2.46

finishing

Adelaide City+0.00on par
South Adelaide Panthers+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide City ↓

South Adelaide Panthers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Adelaide City or draw
77%
Adelaide City or South Adelaide Panthers
80%
Draw or South Adelaide Panthers
43%

Winning margin

Adelaide City wins by 2+
35%
South Adelaide Panthers wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Adelaide City 1+ goals
89%
Adelaide City 2+ goals
65%
Adelaide City 3+ goals
38%
South Adelaide Panthers 1+ goals
74%
South Adelaide Panthers 2+ goals
39%
South Adelaide Panthers 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Adelaide City (draw refunded)
72%
South Adelaide Panthers (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide City at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.08 · 89 matches

South Adelaide Panthers away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.46 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide City attack 1.98 + South Adelaide Panthers defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.22

South Adelaide Panthers attack 1.60 + Adelaide City defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Adelaide City scores more
57%
level
20%
South Adelaide Panthers scores more
23%

Adelaide City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Adelaide City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide City vs South Adelaide Panthers

Adelaide City beat South Adelaide Panthers 4-0 in South Australia NPL on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Adelaide City Park in Adelaide.