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Adelaide City vs Para Hills Knights — South Australia NPL 2026

Adelaide City
Adelaide City
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Para Hills Knights
Para Hills Knights
7/26/2025South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 19Adelaide City Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Adelaide City66%
×Draw18%
Para Hills Knights16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide City
2.42
Para Hills Knights
1.10

Adelaide City creates 120% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 50 away

creates per match

Adelaide City
1.98
Para Hills Knights
1.12

allows per match

Adelaide City
1.08
Para Hills Knights
2.86

finishing

Adelaide City+0.00on par
Para Hills Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide City ↓

Para Hills Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Adelaide City or draw
84%
Adelaide City or Para Hills Knights
82%
Draw or Para Hills Knights
34%

Winning margin

Adelaide City wins by 2+
44%
Para Hills Knights wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Adelaide City 1+ goals
91%
Adelaide City 2+ goals
69%
Adelaide City 3+ goals
43%
Para Hills Knights 1+ goals
67%
Para Hills Knights 2+ goals
30%
Para Hills Knights 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Adelaide City (draw refunded)
81%
Para Hills Knights (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide City at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.08 · 89 matches

Para Hills Knights away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.86 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide City attack 1.98 + Para Hills Knights defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.42

Para Hills Knights attack 1.12 + Adelaide City defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Adelaide City scores more
66%
level
18%
Para Hills Knights scores more
16%

Adelaide City at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Adelaide City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide City vs Para Hills Knights

Adelaide City beat Para Hills Knights 5-1 in South Australia NPL on July 26, 2025.

The match was played at Adelaide City Park in Adelaide.