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Adelaide Blue Eagles vs Adelaide University — South Australia State League 1 2021

Adelaide Blue Eagles
Adelaide Blue Eagles
FT
2 – 0
Adelaide University
Adelaide University
5/7/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 4Marden Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Adelaide Blue Eagles62%
×Draw21%
Adelaide University18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Blue Eagles
2.08
Adelaide University
1.01

Adelaide Blue Eagles creates 106% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 11 away

creates per match

Adelaide Blue Eagles
2.24
Adelaide University
0.73

allows per match

Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.29
Adelaide University
1.91

finishing

Adelaide Blue Eagles+0.00on par
Adelaide University+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Blue Eagles ↓

Adelaide University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Adelaide Blue Eagles or draw
82%
Adelaide Blue Eagles or Adelaide University
79%
Draw or Adelaide University
38%

Winning margin

Adelaide Blue Eagles wins by 2+
38%
Adelaide University wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Adelaide Blue Eagles 1+ goals
87%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 2+ goals
61%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 3+ goals
34%
Adelaide University 1+ goals
64%
Adelaide University 2+ goals
27%
Adelaide University 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
78%
Adelaide University (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Blue Eagles at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

Adelaide University away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Blue Eagles attack 2.24 + Adelaide University defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.08

Adelaide University attack 0.73 + Adelaide Blue Eagles defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Adelaide Blue Eagles scores more
62%
level
21%
Adelaide University scores more
18%

Adelaide Blue Eagles at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Adelaide Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Adelaide Blue Eagles 2–0 Adelaide University

Adelaide Blue Eagles beat Adelaide University 2-0 in South Australia State League 1 on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Marden Sports Complex in Adelaide.