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Adelaide Blue Eagles vs Adelaide Hills Hawks — South Australia State League 1 2021

Adelaide Blue Eagles
Adelaide Blue Eagles
FT
3 – 1
Adelaide Hills Hawks
Adelaide Hills Hawks
5/3/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 8Marden Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Adelaide Blue Eagles62%
×Draw20%
Adelaide Hills Hawks19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Blue Eagles
2.24
Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.15

Adelaide Blue Eagles creates 95% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 22 away

creates per match

Adelaide Blue Eagles
2.24
Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.00

allows per match

Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.29
Adelaide Hills Hawks
2.23

finishing

Adelaide Blue Eagles+0.00on par
Adelaide Hills Hawks+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Blue Eagles ↓

Adelaide Hills Hawks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Adelaide Blue Eagles or draw
81%
Adelaide Blue Eagles or Adelaide Hills Hawks
80%
Draw or Adelaide Hills Hawks
38%

Winning margin

Adelaide Blue Eagles wins by 2+
39%
Adelaide Hills Hawks wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Adelaide Blue Eagles 1+ goals
89%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 2+ goals
65%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 3+ goals
38%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 1+ goals
68%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 2+ goals
32%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
77%
Adelaide Hills Hawks (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Blue Eagles at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

Adelaide Hills Hawks away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Blue Eagles attack 2.24 + Adelaide Hills Hawks defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.24

Adelaide Hills Hawks attack 1.00 + Adelaide Blue Eagles defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Adelaide Blue Eagles scores more
62%
level
20%
Adelaide Hills Hawks scores more
19%

Adelaide Blue Eagles at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Adelaide Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide Blue Eagles vs Adelaide Hills Hawks

Adelaide Blue Eagles beat Adelaide Hills Hawks 3-1 in South Australia State League 1 on May 3, 2022.

The match was played at Marden Sports Complex in Adelaide.