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Addis Ababa Ketema vs Wolkite Ketema — Premier League 2019

Addis Ababa Ketema
Addis Ababa Ketema
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
12/9/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Addis Ababa Ketema35%
×Draw27%
Wolkite Ketema38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Addis Ababa Ketema
1.24
Wolkite Ketema
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

creates per match

Addis Ababa Ketema
1.27
Wolkite Ketema
1.14

allows per match

Addis Ababa Ketema
1.47
Wolkite Ketema
1.21

finishing

Addis Ababa Ketema+0.00on par
Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Addis Ababa Ketema ↓

Wolkite Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Addis Ababa Ketema or draw
62%
Addis Ababa Ketema or Wolkite Ketema
73%
Draw or Wolkite Ketema
65%

Winning margin

Addis Ababa Ketema wins by 2+
15%
Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Addis Ababa Ketema 1+ goals
71%
Addis Ababa Ketema 2+ goals
35%
Addis Ababa Ketema 3+ goals
13%
Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
73%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
37%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Addis Ababa Ketema (draw refunded)
48%
Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Addis Ababa Ketema at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Wolkite Ketema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Addis Ababa Ketema attack 1.27 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.24

Wolkite Ketema attack 1.14 + Addis Ababa Ketema defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Addis Ababa Ketema scores more
35%
level
27%
Wolkite Ketema scores more
38%

Wolkite Ketema at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wolkite Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Addis Ababa Ketema 0–1 Wolkite Ketema

Wolkite Ketema beat Addis Ababa Ketema 1-0 in Premier League on December 9, 2021.

The match was played at Hawassa Stadium in Hawassa.