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Addis Ababa Ketema vs Sidama Bunna — Premier League 2019

Addis Ababa Ketema
Addis Ababa Ketema
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sidama Bunna
Sidama Bunna
6/27/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Bahir Dar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Addis Ababa Ketema33%
×Draw27%
Sidama Bunna40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Addis Ababa Ketema
1.19
Sidama Bunna
1.33

Sidama Bunna creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

creates per match

Addis Ababa Ketema
1.27
Sidama Bunna
1.19

allows per match

Addis Ababa Ketema
1.47
Sidama Bunna
1.11

finishing

Addis Ababa Ketema+0.00on par
Sidama Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Addis Ababa Ketema ↓

Sidama Bunna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Addis Ababa Ketema or draw
60%
Addis Ababa Ketema or Sidama Bunna
73%
Draw or Sidama Bunna
67%

Winning margin

Addis Ababa Ketema wins by 2+
14%
Sidama Bunna wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Addis Ababa Ketema 1+ goals
70%
Addis Ababa Ketema 2+ goals
33%
Addis Ababa Ketema 3+ goals
12%
Sidama Bunna 1+ goals
74%
Sidama Bunna 2+ goals
38%
Sidama Bunna 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Addis Ababa Ketema (draw refunded)
45%
Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Addis Ababa Ketema at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Sidama Bunna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.11 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Addis Ababa Ketema attack 1.27 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sidama Bunna attack 1.19 + Addis Ababa Ketema defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Addis Ababa Ketema scores more
33%
level
27%
Sidama Bunna scores more
40%

Sidama Bunna at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sidama Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Addis Ababa Ketema 1–2 Sidama Bunna

Sidama Bunna beat Addis Ababa Ketema 2-1 in Premier League on June 27, 2022.

The match was played at Bahir Dar Stadium in Bahir Dar.