Addis Ababa Ketema 1–3 Kedus Giorgis

Addis Ababa Ketema

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Kedus Giorgis

3/1/2022

Premier League · Round 15Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Addis Ababa Ketema28%

×Draw27%

Kedus Giorgis45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Addis Ababa KetemaExpected goals in this matchKedus Giorgis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.38

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.02

Kedus Giorgis

1.38

Kedus Giorgis creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 101 away

1.27

creates per match

1.29

1.47

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.27

Kedus Giorgis

1.29

allows per match

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.47

Kedus Giorgis

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Addis Ababa Ketema+0.00on par

Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Addis Ababa Ketema ↓

Kedus Giorgis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Addis Ababa Ketema or draw

55%

Addis Ababa Ketema or Kedus Giorgis

73%

Draw or Kedus Giorgis

72%

Winning margin

Addis Ababa Ketema wins by 2+

10%

Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Addis Ababa Ketema 1+ goals

64%

Addis Ababa Ketema 2+ goals

27%

Addis Ababa Ketema 3+ goals

8%

Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals

75%

Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals

40%

Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Addis Ababa Ketema (draw refunded)

38%

Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Addis Ababa Ketema at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Kedus Giorgis away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Addis Ababa Ketema attack 1.27 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.02

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.29 + Addis Ababa Ketema defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Addis Ababa Ketema scores more

28%

level

27%

Kedus Giorgis scores more

45%

Kedus Giorgis at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff