Addis Ababa Ketema 1–1 Jimma Aba Jifar

Addis Ababa Ketema

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jimma Aba Jifar

5/21/2022

Premier League · Round 25Bahir Dar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Addis Ababa Ketema42%

×Draw27%

Jimma Aba Jifar31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Addis Ababa KetemaExpected goals in this matchJimma Aba Jifar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.09

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.31

Jimma Aba Jifar

1.09

Addis Ababa Ketema creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 35 away

1.27

creates per match

0.71

1.47

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.27

Jimma Aba Jifar

0.71

allows per match

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.47

Jimma Aba Jifar

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Addis Ababa Ketema+0.00on par

Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Addis Ababa Ketema ↓

Jimma Aba Jifar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Addis Ababa Ketema or draw

69%

Addis Ababa Ketema or Jimma Aba Jifar

73%

Draw or Jimma Aba Jifar

58%

Winning margin

Addis Ababa Ketema wins by 2+

19%

Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Addis Ababa Ketema 1+ goals

73%

Addis Ababa Ketema 2+ goals

38%

Addis Ababa Ketema 3+ goals

14%

Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals

66%

Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals

30%

Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Addis Ababa Ketema (draw refunded)

57%

Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Addis Ababa Ketema at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Jimma Aba Jifar away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Addis Ababa Ketema attack 1.27 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.71 + Addis Ababa Ketema defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Addis Ababa Ketema scores more

42%

level

27%

Jimma Aba Jifar scores more

31%

Addis Ababa Ketema at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Addis Ababa Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff