Adanaspor 3–1 Yeni Malatyaspor: Result & Stats

Adanaspor

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Yeni Malatyaspor

M. Yıldırım 75' (pen), 63' (pen)

A. Ciss 65'

M. Güneş 12'

12/13/2024

1. Lig · Round 16Yeni Adana Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Adanaspor63%

×Draw20%

Yeni Malatyaspor18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AdanasporExpected goals in this matchYeni Malatyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.08

Adanaspor

2.20

Yeni Malatyaspor

1.08

Adanaspor creates 104% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 33 away

1.25

creates per match

0.70

1.47

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

Adanaspor

1.25

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.70

allows per match

Adanaspor

1.47

Yeni Malatyaspor

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adanaspor+0.00on par

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adanaspor ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Adanaspor or draw

82%

Adanaspor or Yeni Malatyaspor

80%

Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor

37%

Winning margin

Adanaspor wins by 2+

39%

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Adanaspor 1+ goals

89%

Adanaspor 2+ goals

64%

Adanaspor 3+ goals

37%

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals

66%

Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals

29%

Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Adanaspor (draw refunded)

78%

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adanaspor at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.47 · 117 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adanaspor attack 1.25 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.20

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.70 + Adanaspor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Adanaspor scores more

63%

level

20%

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more

18%

Adanaspor at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Adanaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

M. Yıldırım

Adanaspor · D

9.2

Match Events

12'

M. Güneş

29'

Mehmet Emin Tastan

31'

Erşan Yaşa

44'

Fatih KurucukGoal cancelled

46'

H. Alpsoy← T. Gemicibaşı

46'

B. Innocent← A. Dabo

46'

A. Tapsoba← M. Altunbaş

55'

Alperen Arslan

62'

Abdoul TapsobaPenalty confirmed

62'

Yiğit Ulaş

63'

M. YıldırımPenalty

65'

A. Ciss↳ M. Yıldırım

70'

D. Emeksiz← S. Yépié Yépié

75'

M. YıldırımPenalty

78'

B. Yaz← M. Güler

78'

O. Katipoğlu← M. Taştan

78'

E. Şişman← F. Canlı

80'

K. Selamoğlu← E. Yaşa

81'

Atakan Ayna

83'

Mehmet Gunes

86'

Ö. Ataş← A. Müjde

89'

B. Tuzun← A. Ciss

90+2'

Ömer Atas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AdanasporYeni

Overview

66%Possession34%

17Total Shots4

5Corners0

13Fouls21

Shots

17Total Shots4

10On Target1

5Off Target3

2Blocked0

14Inside Box2

3Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

426Total Passes234

320Accurate Passes132

75%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls21

0Yellow Cards7

3Offsides1