Adanaspor 2–1 Manisa F.K.: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Adanaspor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Manisa F.K.

O. Çınar 81'

S. Çikalleshi 19' (pen)

E. Akgün 64'

2/8/2025

1. Lig · Round 23Yeni Adana Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Adanaspor38%

×Draw26%

Manisa F.K.36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AdanasporExpected goals in this matchManisa F.K.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.33

Adanaspor

1.36

Manisa F.K.

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 117 home / 89 away

1.25

creates per match

1.20

1.47

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Adanaspor

1.25

Manisa F.K.

1.20

allows per match

Adanaspor

1.47

Manisa F.K.

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adanaspor+0.00on par

Manisa F.K.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adanaspor ↓

Manisa F.K. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Adanaspor or draw

64%

Adanaspor or Manisa F.K.

74%

Draw or Manisa F.K.

62%

Winning margin

Adanaspor wins by 2+

17%

Manisa F.K. wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Adanaspor 1+ goals

74%

Adanaspor 2+ goals

39%

Adanaspor 3+ goals

16%

Manisa F.K. 1+ goals

74%

Manisa F.K. 2+ goals

38%

Manisa F.K. 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Adanaspor (draw refunded)

51%

Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adanaspor at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.47 · 117 matches

Manisa F.K. away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.47 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adanaspor attack 1.25 + Manisa F.K. defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Manisa F.K. attack 1.20 + Adanaspor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Adanaspor scores more

38%

level

26%

Manisa F.K. scores more

36%

Adanaspor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Adanaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

O. Çınar

Adanaspor · M

8.2

Match Events

19'

S. ÇikalleshiPenalty

25'

37'

37'

45+1'

45'

64'

M. Fofana← G. Minchev

64'

E. Akgün↳ O. Gürbulak

69'

A. Fofana← Y. Esendemir

69'

A. Ciss← A. Ivan

79'

81'

86'

86'

89'

Daniel CandeiasGoal cancelled

90+2'

Moryke Fofana

90+2'

D. Emeksiz← Candeias

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AdanasporManisa

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots9

8Corners3

11Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots9

3On Target6

3Off Target1

7Blocked2

9Inside Box9

4Outside Box0

Passing

42%Possession58%

276Total Passes413

198Accurate Passes328

72%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides0