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Adanaspor vs Kardemir Karabukspor — 1. Lig 2018

Adanaspor
Adanaspor
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kardemir Karabukspor
Kardemir Karabukspor
10/27/20181. Lig1. Lig · Round 105 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Adanaspor76%
×Draw15%
Kardemir Karabukspor9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adanaspor
2.65
Kardemir Karabukspor
0.82

Adanaspor creates 223% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 17 away

creates per match

Adanaspor
1.25
Kardemir Karabukspor
0.18

allows per match

Adanaspor
1.47
Kardemir Karabukspor
4.06

finishing

Adanaspor+0.00on par
Kardemir Karabukspor+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adanaspor ↓

Kardemir Karabukspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Adanaspor or draw
91%
Adanaspor or Kardemir Karabukspor
85%
Draw or Kardemir Karabukspor
24%

Winning margin

Adanaspor wins by 2+
54%
Kardemir Karabukspor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Adanaspor 1+ goals
93%
Adanaspor 2+ goals
74%
Adanaspor 3+ goals
48%
Kardemir Karabukspor 1+ goals
56%
Kardemir Karabukspor 2+ goals
20%
Kardemir Karabukspor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Adanaspor (draw refunded)
89%
Kardemir Karabukspor (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adanaspor at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.47 · 117 matches

Kardemir Karabukspor away — creates 0.18, concedes 4.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adanaspor attack 1.25 + Kardemir Karabukspor defence 4.06 → ÷2 → 2.65

Kardemir Karabukspor attack 0.18 + Adanaspor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Adanaspor scores more
76%
level
15%
Kardemir Karabukspor scores more
9%

Adanaspor at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Adanaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adanaspor vs Kardemir Karabukspor

Adanaspor beat Kardemir Karabukspor 4-0 in 1. Lig on October 27, 2018.

The match was played at 5 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Adana.