Adanaspor 2–1 Esenler Erokspor: Result & Stats

Adanaspor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Esenler Erokspor

A. Ciss 55'

M. Altunbaş 14'

S. Narin 78'

8/10/2024

1. Lig · Round 1Yeni Adana Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Adanaspor29%

×Draw25%

Esenler Erokspor46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AdanasporExpected goals in this matchEsenler Erokspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.59

Adanaspor

1.21

Esenler Erokspor

1.59

Esenler Erokspor creates 31% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 38 away

1.25

creates per match

1.71

1.47

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Adanaspor

1.25

Esenler Erokspor

1.71

allows per match

Adanaspor

1.47

Esenler Erokspor

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adanaspor+0.00on par

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adanaspor ↓

Esenler Erokspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Adanaspor or draw

54%

Adanaspor or Esenler Erokspor

75%

Draw or Esenler Erokspor

71%

Winning margin

Adanaspor wins by 2+

12%

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Adanaspor 1+ goals

70%

Adanaspor 2+ goals

34%

Adanaspor 3+ goals

12%

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

80%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

47%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Adanaspor (draw refunded)

39%

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adanaspor at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.47 · 117 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adanaspor attack 1.25 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Adanaspor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Adanaspor scores more

29%

level

25%

Esenler Erokspor scores more

46%

Esenler Erokspor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

S. Narin

Esenler Erokspor · M

8.0

Match Events

14'

19'

46'

46'

46'

B. Aydoğmuş← T. Vurgun

55'

A. Ciss↳ S. Yépié Yépié

60'

J. Fernándes← A. Toplu

61'

Hidir Aytekin

61'

T. Gemicibaşı← H. Alpsoy

71'

M. Taşkıran← A. Karaman

71'

A. Hidayetoğlu← F. Orak

73'

M. Çelik← J. Yılmaz

74'

M. Mollaoğlu← C. Diakité

78'

S. Narin

81'

F. Katipoğlu← A. Fofana

81'

A. Kılınç← M. Altunbaş

88'

Berkay Aydogmus

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AdanasporEsenler

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots15

3Corners2

11Fouls6

Shots

9Total Shots15

5On Target5

4Off Target5

0Blocked5

6Inside Box8

3Outside Box7

Passing

36%Possession64%

287Total Passes515

235Accurate Passes435

82%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls6

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1