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Adanaspor vs Diyarbekirspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Adanaspor
Adanaspor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Diyarbekirspor
Diyarbekirspor
10/29/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th Round5 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Adanaspor71%
×Draw17%
Diyarbekirspor12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adanaspor
2.40
Diyarbekirspor
0.88

Adanaspor creates 173% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Adanaspor
2.13
Diyarbekirspor
0.50

allows per match

Adanaspor
1.25
Diyarbekirspor
2.67

finishing

Adanaspor+0.00on par
Diyarbekirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adanaspor ↓

Diyarbekirspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Adanaspor or draw
88%
Adanaspor or Diyarbekirspor
83%
Draw or Diyarbekirspor
29%

Winning margin

Adanaspor wins by 2+
48%
Diyarbekirspor wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Adanaspor 1+ goals
91%
Adanaspor 2+ goals
69%
Adanaspor 3+ goals
42%
Diyarbekirspor 1+ goals
59%
Diyarbekirspor 2+ goals
22%
Diyarbekirspor 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Adanaspor (draw refunded)
85%
Diyarbekirspor (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adanaspor at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Diyarbekirspor away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adanaspor attack 2.13 + Diyarbekirspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.40

Diyarbekirspor attack 0.50 + Adanaspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Adanaspor scores more
71%
level
17%
Diyarbekirspor scores more
12%

Adanaspor at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Adanaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Adanaspor 3–0 Diyarbekirspor

Adanaspor beat Diyarbekirspor 3-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 29, 2019.

The match was played at 5 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Adana.