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Adanaspor vs Afjet Afyonspor — 1. Lig 2018

Adanaspor
Adanaspor
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Afjet Afyonspor
Afjet Afyonspor
8/26/20181. Lig1. Lig · Round 35 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Adanaspor39%
×Draw26%
Afjet Afyonspor35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adanaspor
1.36
Afjet Afyonspor
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 117 home / 17 away

creates per match

Adanaspor
1.25
Afjet Afyonspor
1.12

allows per match

Adanaspor
1.47
Afjet Afyonspor
1.47

finishing

Adanaspor+0.00on par
Afjet Afyonspor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adanaspor ↓

Afjet Afyonspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Adanaspor or draw
65%
Adanaspor or Afjet Afyonspor
74%
Draw or Afjet Afyonspor
61%

Winning margin

Adanaspor wins by 2+
18%
Afjet Afyonspor wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Adanaspor 1+ goals
74%
Adanaspor 2+ goals
39%
Adanaspor 3+ goals
16%
Afjet Afyonspor 1+ goals
72%
Afjet Afyonspor 2+ goals
37%
Afjet Afyonspor 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Adanaspor (draw refunded)
52%
Afjet Afyonspor (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adanaspor at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.47 · 117 matches

Afjet Afyonspor away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adanaspor attack 1.25 + Afjet Afyonspor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Afjet Afyonspor attack 1.12 + Adanaspor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Adanaspor scores more
39%
level
26%
Afjet Afyonspor scores more
35%

Adanaspor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Adanaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adanaspor vs Afjet Afyonspor

Afjet Afyonspor beat Adanaspor 2-0 in 1. Lig on August 26, 2018.

The match was played at 5 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Adana.