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Adana Demirspor vs Yeni Orduspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Adana Demirspor
Adana Demirspor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Yeni Orduspor
Yeni Orduspor
9/25/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd Round5 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Adana Demirspor67%
×Draw17%
Yeni Orduspor16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adana Demirspor
2.62
Yeni Orduspor
1.20

Adana Demirspor creates 118% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Adana Demirspor
3.33
Yeni Orduspor
1.40

allows per match

Adana Demirspor
1.00
Yeni Orduspor
1.90

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par
Yeni Orduspor+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Yeni Orduspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw
84%
Adana Demirspor or Yeni Orduspor
83%
Draw or Yeni Orduspor
33%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+
46%
Yeni Orduspor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals
93%
Adana Demirspor 2+ goals
73%
Adana Demirspor 3+ goals
48%
Yeni Orduspor 1+ goals
70%
Yeni Orduspor 2+ goals
34%
Yeni Orduspor 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)
81%
Yeni Orduspor (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Yeni Orduspor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 3.33 + Yeni Orduspor defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.62

Yeni Orduspor attack 1.40 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more
67%
level
17%
Yeni Orduspor scores more
16%

Adana Demirspor at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Adana Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Adana Demirspor 2–1 Yeni Orduspor

Adana Demirspor beat Yeni Orduspor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 25, 2018.

The match was played at 5 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Adana.