Adana Demirspor 5–0 Serik Spor: Result & Stats

Adana Demirspor

FT

5 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

Serik Spor

11/30/2021

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundYeni Adana Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Adana Demirspor81%

×Draw12%

Serik Spor7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adana DemirsporExpected goals in this matchSerik Spor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.17

0.88

Adana Demirspor

3.17

Serik Spor

0.88

Adana Demirspor creates 260% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

3.33

creates per match

0.75

1.00

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Adana Demirspor

3.33

Serik Spor

0.75

allows per match

Adana Demirspor

1.00

Serik Spor

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Serik Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Serik Spor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw

93%

Adana Demirspor or Serik Spor

88%

Draw or Serik Spor

19%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

62%

Serik Spor wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

96%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

82%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

60%

Serik Spor 1+ goals

59%

Serik Spor 2+ goals

22%

Serik Spor 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

92%

Serik Spor (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Serik Spor away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 3.33 + Serik Spor defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.17

Serik Spor attack 0.75 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more

81%

level

12%

Serik Spor scores more

7%

Adana Demirspor at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Adana Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff